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TL;DR
- “Returnuary” is a myth: January is the second-lowest return month of the year, with a 7.5% average return rate across 8.2M products and 20,000+ suppliers on the Rithum platform
- The real returns crisis is summer: June peaks at 9.35%, July at 8.78%
- TikTok Shop’s U.S. return rate is 0.42%, compared to an 8.25% ecommerce average, meaning traditional channel shoppers are 18x more likely to return a product
- Even in fashion, women’s jeans are 2.4x less likely to be returned via TikTok Shop than through non-social channels.Zalando reduced size-related returns by 10% after implementing more precise sizing tools
Every January, retail teams brace for the post-holiday return wave. It’s become almost a mythical event, with its own nickname: “Returnuary.”
But does it actually exist?
We analyzed return behavior across our more than 8.2 million unique products and 20,000+ suppliers generating billions in global sales. And across three years of data, January consistently ranks as the second-lowest return month of the year, with an average return rate of just 7.5%.
In today’s ecommerce driven gift season, it seems it’s more likely for items to be regifted or recycled to thrift stores than returned.
The actual return crisis is waiting in the sunny summer shadows: June has the year’s highest return rates, with peaks at 9.35%. July follows at 8.78%.
These are driven almost entirely by seasonal apparel. Shoppers buy swimsuits, dresses, and summer pieces sight-unseen, often in multiples, often with the full intention of returning most of them. Two-piece swimwear alone sees return rates as high as 64%.
This pattern has held consistently from 2022 through 2025. While there are nuances to it—retailers who don’t sell clothes likely aren’t hit as hard, for example—the big takeaway is that if your returns strategy is built around January, you’re focusing on the wrong month. The Returnuary monster is a tall tale, distracting from the spikey June lurking around the corner.
Social commerce is cracking returns wide open
In recent returns analysis, we also looked closely at how social commerce is changing the returns landscape.
TikTok Shop’s U.S. return rate is 0.42%.The overall ecommerce average sits at 8.25%. That means shoppers on traditional channels are 18x more likely to return a product than TikTok Shop buyers. The UK TikTok Shop return rate is 0.75%—still a fraction of conventional channel performance.
The instinct is to chalk this up to product type, with the assumption being that TikTok sells cheap, low-consideration items that aren’t worth the hassle of returning.
That’s the easy answer. But we don’t see that holding true. Even in fashion—the highest-return category in all of ecommerce, where 68% of consumers have made a return and traditional return rates run 50-70%—TikTok Shop buyers behave fundamentally differently. Women’s jeans, one of the most-returned items in fashion, are 2.4x less likely to be returned through TikTok Shop than through non-social commerce channels.
The mechanism is straightforward: TikTok gives consumers more confidence before checkout. In traditional ecommerce, a consumer is gambling on product photos and written descriptions. On TikTok Shop, they can see exactly how a product fits on a real body: the stretch, the sizing, the way it looks in motion. There are no surprises at unboxing. Which likely leads to far less bracketing, far fewer returns.
This has meaningful implications beyond TikTok specifically. It’s a green flag about what actually reduces returns: better pre-purchase information. Our last year’s consumer survey of 6,000+ global shoppers backs this up: 39% said better size and fit recommendations would significantly reduce their returns, and 31% say they’d be less likely to return a product if it included real-life customer photos.
Bracketing is a young person’s game. And it’s here to stay.
The summer apparel spike is largely a bracketing problem, and bracketing is a generational one. More than 50% of shoppers under 35 admit to regularly buying more items than they intend to keep, specifically planning to return the rest. Globally, 36% of all consumers do it, with Germany at 43% and the U.S. at 39% leading among surveyed markets.
The behavior is especially entrenched in European markets, where platform refund rates in countries like Austria and Poland can exceed 60% on fashion items. And it accelerates when conditions are favorable: free shipping, generous return windows, and frictionless return processes all make bracketing easier.
The irony is that the policies designed to drive conversion are often the ones amplifying the return problem. One European retail brand implemented a 100-day return window with free logistics. Fashion refund rates soared above 60%. The policy had turned the brand into a fitting room at scale, with all the handling, restocking, and margin erosion that entails.
Friction as a feature
Return friction has traditionally been treated as something to minimize at all costs. The new thinking—and the data—suggests a more nuanced approach.
1 in 5 shoppers says they’ve wanted to return something but didn’t, citing hassle, shipping costs, or distance to drop-off. This intentional friction, placed thoughtfully, can reduce casual returns without damaging the experience for buyers who genuinely need to return.
Return windows are similarly flexible. 51% of global consumers consider a 14-day or shorter window reasonable—and acceptance is even higher in heavy-return markets like Germany (57%) and France (64%). The assumption that consumers expect 30-day windows as a baseline isn’t supported by what consumers actually say they would accept.
Sustainability framing is emerging as another lever, particularly for younger segments. 60% of shoppers say they’d be open to consolidating return shipments to reduce environmental impact. More than half say they’d accept return limits or small fees if positioned as planet-positive. Among Gen Z, 85% say their return behavior is influenced by environmental concerns—the highest of any age group, and a clear signal about where consumer expectations are heading.
Your return policy is a fitting room
The thread running through all of this—the social commerce returns, the summer spike, the bracketing behavior—is that most returns are a pre-purchase problem masquerading as a post-purchase one. And that returns are more complex than they used to be.
But overall, shoppers who know exactly what they’re buying return far less.
The operational and policy fixes are just symptoms. The information gap is the disease.
Close the information gap first. High-quality images, real customer photos, detailed sizing guides, and fit tools are among the highest-ROI investments a retailer can make in return reduction. Zalando reduced size-related returns by 10% after implementing more precise sizing tools. The upfront investment pays for itself quickly.
Build better return policies. Tie free returns to loyalty tiers or order thresholds. Use SKU-level profitability data to determine where you can absorb free return costs and where you need to draw a line. Test variable fees on low-margin products or with repeat returners.
Watch your calendar, not just your categories. If apparel is in your assortment, your peak return exposure is June and July, not January. Other categories might offer similar clues. There is no more singular commerce calendar. Plan inventory, staffing, and return logistics accordingly.
Take social commerce seriously as a returns strategy. Video-driven, creator-mediated product discovery fundamentally changes buyer confidence. That principle is portable across marketplaces: video content, real customer demonstrations, and fit-focused creative reduce returns across channels.
Want to learn more about the nuances of returns and how to prepare? Talk to us. We can help give you specific guidance and guidelines for making returns a profit lever, instead of a loss.
Talk to our teamData caveat: Rithum powers sales on social commerce across fashion, beauty, electronics, and other categories. Data sourced from the Rithum commerce platform, representing 8.2M unique products and 20K+ suppliers generating billions in global sales across ecommerce channels. Results reflect the composition of brands and retailers using the platform.
Gregor Kiddie is a manager, engineering, at Rithum.
