What full carts and slower checkouts mean for your holiday 2025 ecommerce strategy

Summary: Holiday 2025 ecommerce strategy

• Data readiness is uneven. Nearly 3 in 4 retailers and brands say they’re making decisions on incomplete or inaccurate data. Retailers more often act within 48 hours when signals spike, while more brands take 3 to 5 days. 
• Shopper timing has shifted. As covered in our recent webinar, during summer sales season carts were built early and many purchases landed on day 2 to day 4. 
• Where conversion happens is evolving. Social commerce is the top current conversion driver, with site experience close behind. Think live shopping, influencer unboxings, and social-first storytelling that leads directly to purchase. 
• Returns impact profit. 60% of shoppers made at least one return last year. Average processing cost is about $30 per returns. U.S. online returns are projected above $363B; globally, returns account for roughly 17% of sales value. 
• Policy influences purchase. 41% say return policies affect the decision, 88% prioritize free returns, and 47% have stopped buying from a retailer or brand due to policy. 
• Two case notes. Monitoring hourly and leaning back in late improved AOV and conversion by the end of a four-day event. An apparel brand’s mid-event pivot to seasonal assortments, bundles, and cleaner titles delivered a 15% lift over the prior year. 

Shoppers plan early and purchase later

The competing big sales events of July, September, and October have given us an outline of the shape of things to come for holiday season just around the corner. The big themes? Shoppers are planning early and often building carts early then buying late. In our recent webinar, Countdown to holiday 2025: Strategies for growth and agility, experts Kellie Martin, Nistaar Chandhok, and Storm Morgan summed up a new pattern of shopper behavior: “Shoppers were browsing less and buying more deliberately. Cart building happened early, but conversion often didn’t occur until day two or four.” 

The earlier cart building points to the competition of today’s sales season, and the ease of comparison shopping across big sales (especially when shoppers are aided by AI). While early cart building is slowing down the path to purchase, it also gives you longer windows to act on your live sales data—the key is getting the right information quickly, understanding the patterns, and knowing when to change course during a sale (and when to stay steady).  

The 2026 commerce readiness index shows that commerce leaders report uneven data quality and response speed, which matters when promotions land and search behavior shifts.  

Here are some scenarios to help you plan around that pause and move based on what you see as part of your holiday 2025 ecommerce strategy.

Path A: Improve visibility 7 to 10 days before the peak window for your holiday 2025 ecommerce strategy

If data shows you that your discoverability is weak, begin here. The webinar tied early launches to stronger CTR and lower CPC. “You can’t win if you show up late,” Storm said. 

• First, match real searches. Tune product titles and keywords to seasonal queries across the marketplaces and channels you sell through, including your site and social shops. 
• Next, strengthen the product page. Use enhanced product pages with clear bullets and consistent value messaging so comparison shoppers can decide quickly. 
• Then, add early creator content. The webinar highlighted authentic influencer campaigns that show the product in use as a lift when paired with strong product pages. 

Watch CTR, CPC, PDP views, and add to cart. If carts grow but orders land later, go to Path B. If traffic remains thin, stay on Path A and keep improving titles, images, and keywords. 

Path B: Convert day-2 to day-4 buyers without deep discounts 

If carts are building while buyers compare, lean into the timing covered in the webinar. More than a third of shoppers price-check across sites before they commit. 

• First, show value rather than cutting deeper. Bundled offers and loyalty programs lifted average order value in the examples that Storm discussed in the webinar, without the cost of blanket discounts. 
• Next, keep it current. Update titles, keywords, and product page copy to match trending queries and seasonal context during the event. 
• Then, find ready-to-buy-shoppers. AI-driven formats like Google Demand Gen and Performance Max helped when the message was specific to winning new customers. 

Track day-2 and day-4 conversion, AOV, and cart resume rate. If the margin tightens, go to Path C. If traffic softens, return to Path A. 

Path C: Protect margin with value and channel fit 

If revenue grows while profit slips, use the levers shown in the readiness index and webinar. 

• First, tap into pricing agility. Dynamic pricing helped retailers and brands respond to competitors’ moves in real time without broad cuts. 
• Next, set the products and price for each channel. Multichannel shopping is normal. Set assortment and pricing strategy to each channel’s strengths. In the holiday readiness webinar, Storm noted that buyers will pay full price when value is clear, especially for scarce items or well-timed bundles. 
• Then, watch results hour by hour. Rithum saw clients who watched SKUs and profit hour by hour and adjusted as needed. 

If returns start to rise or policy questions distract buyers, move to Path D. 

Path D: Reduce the cost of returns while keeping trust 

Returns are the swing variable in Q4. The 2025 Global Returns & Profit Impact Report quantifies what drives them and what stops them. 

• First, fix issues before purchase. 60% of consumers made at least one return last year. Poor fit is the top driver in apparel at 61%, and about a third of shoppers returned because items did not match descriptions or photos. Clear sizing, accurate copy, and strong images reduce avoidable returns. 
• Next, set clear policies that compete. 41% of consumers say return policies influence purchase, 88% prioritize free returns, and 47% have stopped shopping with a retailer or brand due to policy. If you change terms, make them easy to understand and consistent. 
• Then, plan for common behaviors. Bracketing is a common habit by 36% of global shoppers and over half among shoppers under 35. Two-thirds used third-party drop-off to return at least once in the last 12 months. 51% consider 14 days or less a reasonable window, with higher acceptance of shorter returns windows in some European markets. Understand some of the key levers to lower returns, and lean in.  

Keep an eye on total cost data. The average processing cost is about $30 per return. U.S. online returns are projected above $363B in 2025. 

If operations are steady and you want more demand, go to Path E. 

Path E: Adjust live and capture after-event demand 

If mid-event performance wobbles or you want to extend gains, follow the measured moves shared by Rithum’s experts during the holiday readiness webinar. 

• First, decide with hourly signals. One retailer started slow, held budget, watched hourly, and leaned back in; by the end, AOV and conversion improved, said Storm. 
• Next, pivot toward what is trending. An apparel brand shifted to back-to-school assortments, introduced bundles, and tightened titles and keywords, finishing 15% above the prior year’s Prime event. Per Nistaar: “They were pretty happy with that.” 
• Then, keep campaigns live after the rush. After-event demand is real; in October, we even saw some spending surge higher the day after an event ended than during the first day of the event. Test urgency messaging and retarget saved carts with offers that match the week’s story. 

If visibility still lags, return to Path A. If carts build again and buyers wait until later in the window, go back to Path B. 

Regional notes to localize any path 

If you sell in multiple regions, tune the plan to what shoppers actually do there. In Europe, shoppers compare across Amazon and regional marketplaces like Otto or Allegro, which means titles, keywords, and offers should reference local norms and events. In APAC, Singles Day and other game-like promotions drive activity, so timing and creative should match those mechanics and calendars. In North America, shoppers react strongly to fast delivery promises and a smooth checkout, so make shipping dates and returns information easy to see on the product page. Use these differences to pick which path to start with and which levers to pull first. 

Quick map for retailers and brands 

• If you are not being seen, use Path A. 
• If carts are full and buyers wait, use Path B. 
• If margin is slipping, use Path C. 
• If returns threaten profit, use Path D. 
• If performance is uneven mid-event or you want the tail-end lift, use Path E. 

Start where you are, switch when signals change, and keep each move tied to your data. 

If you’re ready to turn these paths into results, learn how Rithum can help.

Storm Morgan is a Senior Technical Account Manager at Rithum. 

Sources: The 2026 commerce readiness index, Global returns & profit impact report, Countdown to holiday 2025: strategies for growth and agility webinar